An historic time
Well, let’s keep everything relative. It’s an historic time for the computer and mobile communication industry.
Google is holding its big Google I/o conference in San Francisco this week. Apple will have the WWDC in 2 weeks and from both events we can expect big announcements like the one we saw today.
What makes it an historic and interesting time is that the market of mobile computing is still totally open with some serious competitors fighting for their share of the market. I can see at least 5 serious competitors right now:
- Apple certainly got a head start with the iPhone and the iPad. They have already sold a millions of devices (can’t wait for their announcement of the 100 millions iPhone/iPodTouch/iPad).
It looks like they cannot produce enough iPad to keep some descent inventory in their own stores (75% of the Apple Stores were out of stock as of today).
iPhoneOS 4 should be available in a few weeks with more than 200,000 apps. Those are very solid numbers. The future sounds pretty bright for Apple with maybe a few clouds in that blue sky – the long term reaction of the end users to Apple addiction to controlling everything and anything and their overall attitude toward developers and opening the platform to contents not deemed acceptable.
- Google is the strongest contestant to Apple supremacy and come to the fight with some serious weapons. Their OS is slowly catching up, their browser is solid and they recently found their line of communication by pretending to be the white knight and our ultimate line of defense against Apple dictatorial attitude. By their book Apple platform is closed and managed by control freaks, they are our last hope of freedom.
The question is: how long is this going to last? For how long are they going to give away all that technology for free to cell phones manufacturers. If you look at some past experiences, Google always use the same strategy to enter a market – provide a service comparable to what is already existing but for free. Attract a large base of users and than align the price of their service with the competitors. If you want a confirmation of that look at Google Checkout. After a couple of years it is no longer free but charge the same transaction fees as Paypal.
Google is successful because they offer a FREE solution to cell phone manufacturers who want to propose inexpensive alternatives to Apple’s iPhone with a product that look similar.
Apple has never entered the market of discounted products. They have always favored the top end of the market (cellphones or computers) hence Google will most likely win the battle of the market share. But how long will they accept to not make money on this market?
- HP/Palm certainly the best thing that could have happened for both companies. Palm is finally saved (and about to dissolve into its new owner corporate maze) and HP acquires a much needed knowledge, patent and mobile OS. This move will certainly lead to an interesting development. Historically among all the computers manufacturers Apple has been the only one to do both the software and the hardware. Now in the mobile computer market HP will be the second company to control both aspects of the user experience. This move makes them independent from a software manufacturer (like Google or Microsoft) and place them on a course similar to Apple strategy. We will see if this was the right move.
- Microsoft: even if the company is way behind on this market they just cannot be ignored. Windows Mobile 6 was a disaster of a magnitude similar to Vista. Version 6.5 was not really better. Than for some strange reason the company announced that Window Mobile would arrive in about a year and would not be compatible with the devices running the current version. That was the best recipe to make sure that every cell phone manufacturer and end user (at least the one who pay attention to what they buy and not simply listen to a sales rep) walk away from their solution. So right now Microsoft is dead on the water in the battle and all they have to rely on is the hope that Windows Mobile 7 will be their salvation. Still, once it gets available it will require all the power of Microsoft’s marketing machine to reenter the market. At this time they will have to convince cellphone manufacturers that their OS is better than Google’s even if it has very little applications and it’s not free. Talking of an uphill battle!
- RIM: Is something different in my opinion. They are very strong in the corporate world but still seriously under attack. They were there before everybody else with their own OS (sort of), their own devices with their specific design, and even their own architecture to support the devices, but… they totally missed the evolution of the market they were sitting on. It’s only after they realized that Apple was coming up with a device and an OS so strong that it was a threat for them that they finally decided to react. And it was not a very strong reaction. Basically imitating the interface that was created by somebody else but falling short on a lot of aspects. Since everybody watches them losing market share and doing very little to stop it. They come last in the list of competitors because they are simply going down. It is another typical case of a market leader sitting on its position, not bringing any innovation and slowly losing its advantage. Wonder why? Try doing the same thing on an iPhone (or an Android phone) and on a good old blackberry and you will quickly understand that one look attractive and modern and the other is some sort of dinosaur of the mobile computing.
Now I can hear some comments and I would like to address those.
Why is not Nokia on that list? Well because they have nothing so far that can compete with Apple or Google. Nokia has been making cellphones for decade but they see those as phones maybe with a few added features. Apple like I explained some months ago did not created a phone, they created an eco system that includes prominently an OS but also an App store and the tools to support that phone. Google jumped in the same train relatively quickly and now HP is trying to catch up. Microsoft had an OS but it was so bad that they more or less had to abandon it and start again from scratch. RIM had a complete system but just forgot to update it and innovate. In the meantime Nokia is still making… cellphones with a few added functionalities.
And what about Motorola. Ah good old Motorola, remind me when was the last time this company did something right. They used to make microprocessors, they drove themselves out of that business years ago, they used to make cellphones, they still do except that they position themselves in the less profitable segment of this market. They had some success with the razor but them too missed the evolution toward the smartphones pretty much for the same reasons. Lack of a descent (you can say Touch based) operating system and lack of the ecosystem to support it. During the last quarter Apple sold more phones than Motorola. Motorola currently has a catalogue of 117 devices, Apple has exactly 5 references. Call that a victory of quality over quantity!
